“While the mainstream media are ranting about ‘Tsunami Omicron‘and the’ alternative ‘ones are raving about toxic vaccines and the dictatorship of scientists, there are three important facts that are emerging on the new variant which deserve serious discussion. ” This is how the Italian pathologist, immunologist, virologist, scientific communicator and academic speaks on Facebook, Guido Silvestri, about the variante Omicron.
Guido Silvestri tries to to clarify on a variant that is attracting attention due to its high infectivity rate, but which, data in hand, is much less lethal of variants that preceded it.
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«In my little self I keep trying, despite the many commitments and tiredness, because I still believe in the hope of being able to make a contribution, maybe even very modest, so that my far away country gets out of this wave of collective hysteria which seems to have taken it in the last few weeks », Silvestri continues.
“These facts are:
1. The calculated lethality of Covid-Omicron (in technical jargon: Infection Fatality Rate, i.e. the ratio between the number of deaths and the number of cases observed) seems much lower than that of the previous variants. The data from South Africa on nearly 400,000 cases speaks of 0.26% of lethality, compared to 2.5% -4.0% of previous waves. This is despite the fact that only 26.3% of the population is fully vaccinated (42% of adults). In accordance with this observation, the pressure on intensive care in South Africa – a country of 60 million inhabitants – remains low, with a total of 546 beds occupied (much less than in Italy).
2. Today is the news of the study by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the South African government directed by Nicole Walter and Cheryl Cohen, according to which the risk of hospitalization in patients who have contracted Omicron it is the 20% than that observed in the patients they had Delta contract (To be clear, if Delta’s risk of going to hospital was 5%, it would be 1% for Omicron). Although the study uses historical controls (Delta has disappeared from South Africa now) the analysis was done after having corrected for age, sex and positive history for having contracted the infection previously.
3. The very interesting study of the LKS Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong, directed by Michael Chan Chi-wai and John Nicholls, according to which the Omicron variant is more effective in infecting the cells of the upper respiratory tract and bronchi but less efficient at infecting those of deep lung tissue. This study could represent the mechanistic basis of the lower clinical severity observed in South Africa, as interstitial pneumonia with diffuse alveolar damage and consequent systemic complications is the central element in the pathogenesis of severe Covid.
For once I would ask those who follow this page to spread this post as much as possible, trying to arouse in the media and especially in politicians (and in those who recommend them) one serious, calm, pragmatic and fact-based discussion, on how these data can be used to reshape our legislative and communication approach to the pandemic ».
Last updated: Wednesday 22 December 2021, 11:01 pm
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Omicron, Silvestri denies everyone: “Let’s get out of this wave of hysteria, data in hand is much less lethal”